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| Period | Picks | Record | Win % | Net Units |
|---|
Props
ParlaysLeans are picks where our model detected a potential edge below the card threshold. They are tracked for full transparency but are excluded from all performance stats, win rate, and net units.
Leans are NOT official recommendations. They exist solely for model transparency.
FanDuel uses state-specific domains. Set your state so betslip links open correctly.
Auto-select your favorite league tab when you open the dashboard.
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Choose which emails you receive. All notifications are on by default.
Set your unit size so the dashboard can show dollar equivalents alongside unit-based stats.
Select the sportsbooks you use. We'll show odds and betslip links only for your enabled books.
The dashboard has 6 main tabs:
| Tab | What's Inside |
|---|---|
| Today | Today's card picks, props, parlays, Long Shot, leans, live scores |
| VIP | Look-Ahead Lines + Futures (sub-tabs) |
| Performance | Record, P&L chart, CLV, confidence accuracy, season records, streaks |
| History | Graded Picks • Leans • My Bets (sub-tabs, with filter chips) |
| Account | Profile, unit size, notifications, subscription, referrals, favorite sport |
| Support | Guide, contact, onboarding tour replay |
On mobile, a bottom navigation bar provides quick access to Picks, Stats, History, VIP, and Account. Swipe left/right to navigate between tabs. Pick details collapse behind a "Details" toggle to keep the view clean. StrataWager is installable as a Progressive Web App (PWA) — tap "Add to Home Screen" on your mobile browser for a native app experience with faster load times.
Each pick is assigned 1-3 stars based on calculated edge percentage — not AI opinion. Higher edge = more stars = larger unit size.
| Rating | Edge | Units | When Used |
|---|---|---|---|
| ★☆☆ | < 6.5% | 1.0u | Lean — informational only, greyed out, excluded from record |
| ★★☆ | ≥ 6.5% | 2.0u | Solid mispricing, multiple signals aligned |
| ★★★ | ≥ 10% | 3.0u | Clear pricing advantage, strong convergence. Max sizing. |
| Below Floor | < 2% | — | Does not qualify — excluded from card and leans |
Set your unit size on the Account tab — typically 1-2% of your bankroll. Each pick card shows Risk and Win amounts in units.
Spreads, Totals & ML Favorites — to-win sizing. Star rating defines what you win. Risk varies with odds.
ML Underdogs — stake sizing. Star rating defines what you risk. Win is larger and varies with odds.
Before picks are selected, the system loads real-time enrichment signals that add context beyond raw odds.
| Signal | Source | How It's Used |
|---|---|---|
| Sharp Money | Line movement tracking | Professional bettors moving the line. Sharp action increases confidence on that side. |
| Reverse Line Movement | Bet volume vs line direction | When a line moves opposite to where the majority of bets are placed — one of the clearest indicators that large, sophisticated money has taken a position. |
| Steam Moves | Multi-book line shifts | Multiple sportsbooks adjust their lines simultaneously within a short window — signals that sharp betting syndicates have coordinated action on a game. |
| Options Flow | Unusual options activity | Large unusual options bets on game-adjacent stocks signal informed money. |
| Market Context | VIX + sector rotation | Macro backdrop. High fear environments affect public betting behavior. |
| Referee Assignments | NBA + NCAAB officials | Referee tendencies (foul rate, pace, bias) factor into total and spread picks. |
| Smart Money | Aggregated sharp signals | When sharp and public money diverge, the system favors the sharp side. |
| MLB Enrichment | MLB Stats API + Open-Meteo | Probable starting pitchers and game-day weather (wind, temp, humidity) for park-adjusted analysis. |
| Season Context | ESPN schedule lookup | Playoffs flag, season phase (early/mid/late), week-of-season — stamped on every candidate so analysis is grounded in where the season actually is. |
| NHL B2B & Goalie Slot | NHL API + depth chart | Back-to-back flag for both teams and confirmed/projected goalie starter — drives hockey stage2 analysis. |
| NBA Player Recency | balldontlie last-10 | Actual recent-game stat averages for prop picks (points, rebounds, assists) — replaces speculative form language. |
Every pick includes a live edge block showing the quantified edge behind the recommendation.
| Field | What It Means |
|---|---|
| Edge % | Percentage advantage over implied probability. Higher = stronger mispricing. |
| Win Prob | Estimated probability this pick wins, from signal convergence and historical data. |
| Confidence | Low / Medium / High / Very High — signal strength and convergence. |
| Kelly Size | Fractional Kelly Criterion — optimal unit size. Quarter Kelly, capped at 3u. |
| Play Condition | Line threshold locked at generation. If breached at broadcast, pick is voided. |
Enter your book's line and odds on any pick or game to see if the edge holds at your price. You'll get an instant BET, LEAN, or PASS verdict with recommended sizing — then add it to My Bets in one click.
Every pick has a Play Condition — e.g. "Play Lakers -4.5. Skip if -5.5 or worse." If the line moves past this before broadcast, the pick is voided and excluded from the record.
| Status | Meaning | In Record? |
|---|---|---|
| Won | Graded correct, condition valid at broadcast | Yes |
| Lost | Graded incorrect, condition valid at broadcast | Yes |
| Void | Condition breached at broadcast — edge didn't exist when issued | No |
Picks clearing the edge floor but not making the main card appear as Leans with full game details shown greyed out. Leans are NOT official recommendations — they exist for model transparency and are excluded from all performance tracking. Graded lean results are available in the Leans sub-tab of History.
The PROPS tab shows daily player prop picks — over/under bets on individual stats (points, rebounds, assists). Sourced from FD/DK discrepancies ≥1.5%. Props are pre-filtered against the edge model before they hit the database — only props that survive the edge threshold are published.
Prop sizing uses Kelly — positive odds: Kelly = units risked; negative odds: Kelly = units won.
Up to one real parlay per day, built from today's card picks (leans excluded) and selected by expected value (win_prob × payout). All legs must be 2★ or higher — 1★ leans cannot enter a parlay. No duplicate legs, no two legs from the same game.
A daily 3-leg entertainment parlay built from the highest-odds picks on the card. It's a fun long-odds flier — not an official recommendation. Visible to all tiers.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Legs | 3 (highest-odds card picks) |
| In Record? | No — excluded from all stats |
| Tier Access | All tiers (Free included) |
| Display | Separate “Long Shot” section below parlays on Today tab |
StrataWager pulls live odds from six sportsbooks: FanDuel, DraftKings, BetMGM, Fanatics, Caesars, and BetRivers. Each pick card shows the best available price across all six and a per-book branded button to jump straight to that book.
The Best badge respects your personal sportsbook preferences — set the books you actually use under Account → Sportsbooks, and the "Best" label will only highlight books from your list.
| Book | Link Type |
|---|---|
| FanDuel | Pre-loaded betslip — enter stake and confirm |
| DraftKings | Game page — select your market manually |
| BetMGM, Fanatics, Caesars, BetRivers | Game page deep link |
The daily card is hard-capped at 12 picks total: up to 8 from the morning pipeline (8:20 AM ET) plus up to 4 hourly additions during the day. New picks stop being added to the card after 4 PM ET — the card you wake up to is the card you bet.
Picks that clear the edge floor but don't make the cap drop down to Leans for transparency. Parlays are exempt from the cap (built separately).
The system rescans odds hourly 8 AM-7 PM ET. When a post-notify pick's edge drops 3%+, Sharp and VIP subscribers get an email alert. Alerts are suppressed when the line moved favorably for the bettor — you only get notified about unfavorable movement.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Trigger | Edge drops 3%+ on a pick already sent |
| Timing | Within 4 hours of tipoff |
| Cooldown | Max 1 per pick per 2 hours |
| Content | Old vs new edge, line movement details |
When a post-notify pick drops below the 3% minimum edge, VIP subscribers receive a "DO NOT PLACE" alert. The alert shows the specific demotion (e.g., "2★ → Lean" or "3★ → 2★") in the badge, subject line, and body so you know exactly how the line moved against you — protecting you from betting a pick that lost its edge after broadcast.
Fresh odds pulled every hour (9 AM – 10 PM ET) power four features: live edge updates on pick cards, line movement alerts (Sharp+), void protection alerts (VIP), and "Picks Added" emails when new card picks are found from odds movement. New game-side picks and props trigger subscriber alerts — parlays are capped at 1 per day and won't add from hourly runs. The midday email shows new picks highlighted at the top, followed by the full updated card. The Play Condition is still locked at generation time.
The Look Ahead sub-tab (under the VIP tab) shows games 2-7 days out where early lines carry more value than day-of lines. Updated 3x/week (Mon/Wed/Fri).
Early lines are set before the market fully adjusts. Sharp bettors find the best value before injury news, public money, and line movement compress the edge.
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Window | 2-7 days before game time |
| Schedule | Mon/Wed/Fri at 6:30 AM ET |
| Picks per run | 3-5, focused on spreads and totals |
| Auto-expiry | Picks expire when game starts |
| Performance | Tracked separately from daily picks |
The Futures sub-tab (under the VIP tab) features AI-analyzed championship and season-long markets — conference winners, league champions, season props. Updated 3x/week with per-book odds comparison.
Markets: NBA Championship, NCAA Tournament, NHL Stanley Cup, NFL Super Bowl + Conference (in season), MLB World Series (in season).
| Detail | Value |
|---|---|
| Picks per run | 2-4 targeting longshot value |
| Auto-void | Picks void when outcome is eliminated |
| Performance | Tracked separately |
| Tier | Price | What You Get |
|---|---|---|
| Free | $0 | 1 daily sample pick, season records, aggregate performance stats, referral program |
| Bettor | $19/mo | All picks, real-time, deep links, pick history, bankroll tracker, bet tracker, streak tracker, referral program |
| Sharp | $39/mo | + props, AI rationale, edge %, Your Odds verdict, line movement alerts, CLV analytics |
| VIP | $69/mo | + parlays, look-ahead, futures, void protection, priority support |
Every morning: yesterday's results + today's card, filtered by tier. VIP sent first for maximum action time. Includes AI-generated day summary. Leagues with no picks are omitted. When new game picks are found from odds movement during the day, a "Picks Added" alert goes to Bettor+ subscribers.
Control which emails you receive from Account > Notifications. Four toggles:
- Daily Card — morning pick email (all tiers)
- Midday Updates — new picks from hourly scans (Bettor+)
- Line Movement Alerts — edge shift notifications (Sharp+)
- Void Protection Alerts — pick voided alerts (VIP)
All on by default. Every email includes a link to manage preferences. Notifications for tiers above yours show an upgrade prompt.
Record (W-L-P) — Wins, losses, pushes. Props and parlays are included in the overall record.
Net Units — Profit/loss in units. Multiply by your unit size for dollars.
Win % — At -110, you need 52.4% to break even long-term.
Star Performance — Breakdown by star rating. Higher stars should produce higher net units per pick.
Props & Parlays — Also shown in their own sections with independent win rate and net units, but counted in the overall record.
P&L Chart (Day view) — Plots every individual graded pick as a hoverable dot, not just daily totals. Hover any point to see the pick text, result, and net units. Toggle between Day, Week, Month, and Year views.
Picks grade automatically every 15 minutes. Graded picks stay on the Today tab with a FINAL score badge, colored W/L border, and final game score — so you can review results without leaving the card. Live games show a pulsing LIVE badge with current score. P&L chart grows intraday. Dashboard refreshes every 60 seconds.
Every pick card displays matchup context (e.g., “CLE @ ATL”) and game time. Sharp+ tiers also see edge % on each graded pick card. Each card includes a Share button that copies a formatted summary to your clipboard.
History has three sub-tabs: Graded Picks, Leans, and My Bets. Use the filter chips at the top to slice by league (ALL/NBA/NFL/MLB/NHL/NCAAB/NCAAF), result (W/L/Push), or star rating (1-3☆).
Set your unit size in dollars on the Account tab and see dollar P&L alongside units everywhere — performance summary, pick history, and daily email. If your unit is $100 and a pick wins +2.0u, you'll see "+$200.00" next to it.
Tap "Add to My Record" on any pick to track it. Enter the line and odds at your book — you'll see an instant BET/LEAN/PASS verdict with recommended sizing before confirming. Your personal record reflects your numbers, not the platform's. Works on curated picks, Game Browser, and graded picks in History.
Your personal record shows in the My Bets tab — wins, losses, net units, and dollar P&L (if bankroll is set) — separate from the platform record.
Closing Line Value (CLV) measures whether StrataWager consistently gets better prices than where the market closes. It's the gold standard metric for evaluating sports betting skill — independent of short-term variance.
The CLV Dashboard in the Performance tab shows:
- CLV+ Rate — percentage of picks that beat the closing line
- Avg CLV — average points of closing line value per pick
- By League — CLV breakdown per sport
Every pick is assigned a confidence label: Very High, High, Medium, or Low. The Confidence Accuracy card in the Performance tab shows how well each confidence level correlates with actual outcomes — total picks, W-L record, win rate, and net units per level.
Use this to calibrate how much weight you give each confidence rating when deciding which picks to tail.
The By Season section in the Performance tab shows W-L records for each sport's current season (e.g., NBA 2025-26, NCAAB 2025-26). Active seasons sort to the top by pick count; off-season leagues appear dimmed at the bottom.
Season records also appear on the public Performance page so prospective subscribers can see current-season results.
Every pick gets a SHA-256 hash committed to a public GitHub audit log before any game has started. The /verify page auto-loads today's hashes, displays a green shield when each pick matches its on-chain commitment, and links straight to the GitHub commit. This is cryptographic proof we cannot edit results after the fact.
Your dashboard header shows the current overall streak (e.g., 3W streak) and last-10 form. The Performance tab breaks streaks down by league — so you can see "NBA: 5W in last 8" alongside "NCAAB: 2L streak". When you hit a 3+ win streak, a confetti celebration fires on your dashboard.
Streaks are also shown in the daily email header for paid subscribers. A 🔥 icon means 7+ wins in the last 10 (hot); ❄️ means 3 or fewer (cold).
Share your unique referral link from the Account tab. When someone signs up for a paid plan using your link:
- You get 1 free week at your current subscription level
- They get 1 free week at whatever tier they choose
Maximum 10 referrals. The reward is applied as a Stripe credit on your next invoice. Your referral link is also in every daily email footer.
My picks aren't showing — when does the card come out?
What are "Leans"?
How do I reset my 2FA?
How do I change my password or email?
What's the difference between line movement and void alerts?
How does "Your Odds" work?
Why was a pick voided?
How are net units calculated?
How do I upgrade my tier?
What happens if I cancel my subscription?
Tier-based response time guarantees during business hours (8 AM – 10 PM ET).
| Tier | Response Time | Features |
|---|---|---|
| VIP | 4 hours | Priority queue, void protection alerts, dedicated ticket flag |
| Sharp | 12 hours | Expedited response, line movement alerts |
| Bettor | 24 hours | Standard support with full ticket tracking |
| Free | 48 hours | Community-level support |